Donald Trump’s Presidential Term Odds

usa flagDonald Trump is the most controversial American president in history. Not a day goes by without the president coming out with a controversial statement on Twitter, in front of the press or while meeting other world leaders.

He is outspoken, doesn’t know when to stop and likes to look danger in the face even when it seems that he is only days away from putting his nation in jeopardy of a nuclear war. This behaviour has led many Americans to regret voting for him and has made his opponents even more vocal in the calls for his impeachment.

Bookmakers have seized this opportunity and have already started offering Donald Trump impeachment odds. The fact of the matter is that most analysts are still expecting Trump to finish his first term as president and then lose at the 2021 US presidential elections, but there is still room for him to leave the White House sooner if he continues this sort of behaviour. Let’s have a look at those Trump impeachment odds and let’s see if we can predict when Trump will actually leave office.

Will Trump Stay in Office for the Entirety of his First Term?

When Trump took the oath of office as the President of the United States on 20 January 2017 no American expected that their president will be the laughing stock of the world. Sure, many people expected the self-made billionaire to rule with flair and flamboyance, but nobody could have predicted that the man standing in front of the United States Capitol in Washington DC on that breezy January afternoon would turn out to be the village idiot of the free world.

But for how long can Trump keep this going and will he be able to complete his first term which ends on 20 January 2021. If you have seen his recent blunders during his UN speech, then you probably think that he wouldn’t even finish 2018 as a president.

However, most analysts agree that impeaching Trump now, rather than waiting for his first term to end is much more difficult. Bookmakers seem to agree with this sentiment and as a result betting operators such as EnergyBet and LV BET give their lowest odds of 11/10 for Trump to cease to be president in 2021 when his term ends.

Might He Leave Office this Year?

Donald Trump
Donald Trump

Trump had an embarrassing 2018 even for his standards and this year’s low points will probably haunt him for the rest of his political career. He started the year by threatening the North Korean president with nuclear weapons and he even publically taunted him by calling him a ‘Rocket Man’. Then during a meeting with Russian president Vladimir Putin he claimed that his Russian counterpart didn’t have any reason to meddle in the American presidential elections, a statement which even Vladimir Putin couldn’t believe he heard. And if that wasn’t bad enough, Trump then said that he was actually misunderstood and that he actually said that Russia definitely meddled in the 2016 elections.

Many elected officials would have their political careers over based on these two instances alone, but Trump has lowered the bar so much that nothing seems to be bad enough for him.

However, many people believe that Trump is only moments away from making another blunder which would end his presidency in 2018. If you are one of them, you can get high odds of 10/1 at both EnergyBet and LV BET.

Or Will He Cease to be President in 2019?

With 2018 almost gone, if you feel that Trump won’t complete his first term, the smart money is probably on Trump being impeached in 2019. 2019 will be full of hugely important political situations which Trump will have to navigate and if his recent record is anything to go by then he will most likely make a mess of most of them.

This is because of the difficulty in resolving political conflicts such as the ones between Russia and Ukraine, Israel and Palestine, North and South Korea, Serbia and Kosovo, the constant boiling pot known as Syria, and the emerging crisis in Saudi Arabia. All of these geopolitical issues will be a problem for any experienced American president, but for Trump they might be the final nail in his coffin.

Bookmakers seem to agree that 2019 will be a tricky year for Trump to remain as president and that’s why EnergyBet and LV BET give him odds of 4/1 to leave office next year. This belief is made even stronger if you compare their odds for Trump to leave office in 2020 which are much higher and set at 12/1.

Will Donald Leave in his Second Term?

This betting proposition is the most unlikely of them all. For it to be successful, it requires that Trump remains in office for the entirety of his first term, then runs to be elected for a second term, wins those elections, and then gets himself impeached in 2022, 2023 or 2024.

There are several stumbling blocks along the road for this bet to come to fruition, the first of which is Trump staying in office for his full first term. If that seems unlikely, think about the next one.
He needs to get the courage to run for office for the second time (ok, this one will be easy) and then to win at those elections. Now that is very unlikely. In fact, the Democrats can come out with a completely unknown and inexperienced candidate and still win by a landslide. Finally, if Trump wins his second term, he then has to cease to be president before that term actually finishes in 2025.

Due to the improbability of this scenario LV BET and EnergyBet have gone for high odds of 50/1 for Trump leaving office in either one of 2022, 2022, or 2023.

Can Trump Become the 15th President to Complete his Second Term?

For many people it was inexplicable when Trump won the 2016 elections and they were looking for Russian involvement in the presidential elections in order to explain just how such an inept president had been elected.

However, the fact of the matter is that the American people went out and voted for Trump, with or without Russian meddling. It is these people who might do the unthinkable once again and vote for Trump for the second time and then let him see out his second term in its entirety.

This would mean that Trump would get himself in an elite group of 14 other presidents who have completed two terms. The list includes historical figures such as George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, Andrew Jackson, Ulysses S. Grant and recently popular presidents such as Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama.

However, the fact that George W. Bush is also on this list means that something like this has happened before and tat Trump can actually see out both of his terms. EnergyBet and LV BET give odds of 3/1 for this scenario to occur.